Assessing commercial viability of biosimilars

Challenge

A European pharma company seeking to license a development-stage follow-on biologic needed to assess the commercial potential of a second-generation antibody against a validated oncology target.

Solution

We assessed the competitive landscape of the target molecule, considering both biosimilars and other next generation products in development. Through interviews with clinicians, we established the key unmet medical needs to assess the market opportunity, quantified the size of that opportunity and identified the clinical and commercial risks.

Using this information, we constructed a Monte Carlo simulation and risk-adjusted NPV model and advised on key terms to counter-propose to the technology originator.

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